ataraxia - only in dreams

Scams: They Can Be Fun

2010-04-03T22:44:00.004-05:00

So, I just got a couple of emails requesting computer service, sounded sketchy right off the bat, but I was willingly to look into it, just in case.

First email:

From: Lord Jones
To: Me
Date Sat, Apr 3, 2010 at 10:31 PM
Subject: Computer Repair And Installation
--
Hello,

I got your contact and i was just checking if you will be available to
repair and install some applications on 13(Thirteen ) PC .

Get back to me for details if you'll be available.

Guess it was mostly the poor English that made it look bad, but I know plenty of adults that can't write coherently. So I replied that I was available. Second email:

Hello ,

How you doing?

Thanks for you quick response,I have some Hp PCs(Intel Pentium IV)
since we currently have a major breakdown on most of our systems and I
thought it was best to have a general upgrade and maintenance.(I will
be providing the software needed).Below are the things needed to be
done one on each laptops:

1 Format Hard Drive
2 Install Win Xp with Service Pack 2
3 Microsoft Office Package
4 AVG Virus Software (Free Lifetime Updates )
5 Adobe Acrobat
6 Laptop Cleaning of the keyboard, screen and other case.
7 Diagnostics of the entire system after to check hard, CD Rom, floppy,
etc.

I will like You to know that my mode of payment is by US certified
check mailed and address to you from my employer company since I am
presently on a business workshop in Panama city,South American and i
want you to know that i will handle the shipment myself since i have a
shipper from the state here that will bring the laptops to your
place,and will come pick them up as soon as you are done with them.

I should have make this a phone order but i have a network problem of
where i am and my shipper will be coming with the necessary Software
for the installations of the Computers with both the Operating
System,Microsoft Office and the Anti-virus for each computers .

However,get back to me with your last asking price for the 13 PC.
I await your urgent response so that i can put the arrangement in
order.

Thanks and hope to read from you soon.

What? He is shipping them from where? A certified check?

Suspicious I Google'd the TWO email addresses he used, nothing. How about, "laptop repair scam south america". Ah. Exact same message.

I am thinking I could have some fun with this, I quoted him $75/PC for $975 total, then $150/PC for $1,950 total after the Googling. Still a fair price, apparently. Now all he needs is:

I will be sending you the payment inform of US certified cashier check
mailed and addressed to you and regards to this kindly get back to me
with your full information (in the format below)to receive the payment
so it can be made out on-time.

NAME:
ADDRESS(NOT P O BOX):
CITY:
STATE:
ZIP CODE:
CONTACT PHONE NUMBER:
DIRECT PHONE NUMBER.
BEST TIME TO CALL

I Will be waiting to read your mail soon.

I haven't decided what information he will be getting. Maybe 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. ? Too obvious? One way or another, this could be fun.

P.S. This search turns up even better results. I do want to know where he got that email, it isn't the one I use for work (including my freelance tech support).

LOST & Exodus

2010-03-26T21:28:00.005-05:00

The LOST narrative (allegory?) seems to take on more and more Old Testament allusions, as well as broader Biblical ones. However one in particular struck me yesterday as I was reading my Bible (and had finished reading Slate's on-going commentary on LOST).

Smokey & Richard in Ab Abterno

Everyone remember the most recent scene with Smokey, as he confronts Richard on The Black Rock? Smoking, electrical arches, etc. Well, the following comes out of Exodus 19, about two months after God led the Israelites out of Egypt. Moses continues up Sinai and receives the Ten Commandments from God after this:

¹⁶ On the morning of the third day there was thunder and lightning, with a thick cloud over the mountain, and a very loud trumpet blast. Everyone in the camp trembled. ¹⁷ Then Moses led the people out of the camp to meet with God, and they stood at the foot of the mountain. ¹⁸ Mount Sinai was covered with smoke, because the LORD descended on it in fire. The smoke billowed up from it like smoke from a furnace, the whole mountain trembled violently, ¹⁹ and the sound of the trumpet grew louder and louder. Then Moses spoke and the voice of God answered him. ^c
²⁰ The LORD descended to the top of Mount Sinai and called Moses to the top of the mountain. So Moses went up... (NIV)

Given the dubious nature of un-Locke, this either goes nowhere, or makes it all the more interesting. I leave it to you.

Programming

2010-01-17T21:27:00.000-06:00

As I write this I am trying to program. It has been awhile and is frustrating me a little bit. I am trying to convince my program to connect to a database that I created in the program. In other words, I am trying to get my program to talk to itself. And I can't.

Apparently it has simply been too long since I tried to program, at least in Visual Basic (e.g., "easy" Windows programming, as opposed to Linux programming, which is the most recent programming I have done.)

I am not really sure what the point of this entry is, other than I want to start blogging at least a little bit again.

Where I've Been

2009-11-23T09:01:00.001-06:00

The other night Katie and I were talking -- as we often do -- and the conversation turned to where we "are going" in life.

It got me thinking, first, about where I am, much less going. I push carts for a big retailer with a wage barely above minimum wage. I do the same thing day in and day out. Why am I here? How did I get to place that seems to be going nowhere? What have I been doing? The answers came to me more quickly than I expected. And, I think, converge: I wanted to marry Katie.

She had a shot at what I thought would be a fantastic opportunity for her a thousand miles away and I let her know I thought it would be a fantastic opportunity for her even if it was a thousand miles away. She got the job and I followed her down because, well, I was going to marry her. (And she had no clue about the latter.)

My job did not follow me, nor did new ones appear quickly. My bills, however, did follow and did appear quickly. The only interview I had was pretty sketchy and I am glad that I didn't end up with the job. Pushing carts was the only job that came my way.

That pretty much answers the why and how. Next I started thinking , "So I am where I am so I could marry Katie... so I could prepare for the rest of our lives together." Wait, so I've spent the last year and a half getting ready for the rest of my life? That is true, but only to the extent that every day we are getting ready for the rest of our lives. "Is that it?" I wondered.

No. It is not. I am pushing carts but I enjoy my life (I am married! To a wonderful lady!). Moreover, I have enjoyed it, even when it was getting ready to get married, even before Katie knew this was my plan. I've enjoyed road-tripping, I've enjoyed spending a lot of time with my parents in Minnesota before I came down here, and more time when they were able to visit, I enjoyed seeing Katie regularly, I enjoyed going to church, I enjoyed meeting and getting to know new people (if only a couple of them well), I have enjoyed working on my car (at least part of the time), I've enjoyed learning new things at work, I have enjoyed learning how hard I can work, I've enjoyed having a regular routine that lasts longer than a semester.

And this isn't a complete list! My low level low wage life has been good! Most of the days haven't been exciting, but the events have been. (If my life was a movie I think it would be pretty good, more on that later.)

In other words, I have enjoyed living now, not just getting ready to live later, even though it has "just" been pushing carts "getting ready" for The Next Big Thing. If The Next Big Thing never comes (although I think it will) I'll be ok, in fact, I am sure I will continue to enjoy life as much as I have.

The Second Step

2009-11-22T22:09:00.003-06:00

I have successfully completed the second step of becoming a great writer: not writing.

I know, it sounds odd to say that, especially as I just wrote a post about the one defining thing about writers is that they write. Well, they also spend a lot of time not writing, and I seem to be better at that part.

I have a common theme running through my blog posts, going back five years (although many of them are lost), that theme now continues, "I had some great things written in my head, but they didn't hit the page."

I didn't work I think that I would have a lot more time to write. In fact, I would probably have 25-40 more hours a week to write. Of course, all the things that pop into my head while pushing carts wouldn't and I would probably end up doing the same thing that I do when I get home anyway, splitting my time between reading up on the day's news and playing mafia wars.

This is a really boring post, I know that, I am just going to say that straight up. But in the past week I've spent enough time on the second step of writing that I need to spend at least some time on the first part.

Like God

2009-11-16T10:41:00.000-06:00

me: heh

Are you on FB chat?

Jeff: Yep.

I'm everywhere.

me: Just like God...

Jeff: well… not exactly

Writing for Its Own Sake

2009-11-15T17:21:00.003-06:00

Writer: One who writes.

It is a fairly straightforward definition but one I find more often than not difficult to fulfill. People tell me I am a good writer and I enjoy it, yet I rarely write more than pithy emails these days. So I decided that I ought to start writing again, for its own sake.

The best writers are the ones that write daily, even if most of the pages end up being recycled, to only be written upon and recycled again. I guess it is just the very practice of writing something.

I did a lot of my best writing when I was in China. I mostly blogged about stuff that interested me. Sometimes the topics, I knew, were ones nobody else cared about. Other times I tried to write towards a goal of other people being interested. Obviously writing about something you nobody cares about doesn't go anywhere. Surprisingly, writing about something that you know does interest them (but doesn't interest you) doesn't turn out well most of the time.

If I have more than one or two readers going forward I am going to be surprised. But I'm not writing for them. I am writing for me. I am writing for the sake of writing.

Another Bumper Sticker

2009-09-21T14:34:00.000-05:00

-------------------------------
JM Addington
jm@jmaddington.com
-------------------------------
Sent from my phone, which has spordically working "A" & "B" keys. Oh, and no spellcheck which I have become quite accustomed to.

Scary? Yes.

2009-09-14T17:42:00.001-05:00

Wait for it...

2009-07-22T19:56:00.003-05:00

How much heat do you think Obama will catch for supposedly calling the Cambridge police stupid? I am betting the "blogosphere" is already catching on fire.

In case you are wondering, referring to a recent where a black man was arrested after breaking into his own home*, Obama said, "[t]he Cambridge police acted stupidly [given there was evidence the man was in his own home]."

*And showing two forms of ID to top it. Of course, he was arrested for disorderly conduct (charges were dropped today), not breaking and entering.

Food Insects

2009-07-22T14:27:00.002-05:00

From Zach Braff's Facebook page:

Do you think Noah had to bring extra insects to feed the frogs? If so, were they told ahead of time they were the food insects versus the repopulating the world insects and if so to that, were they in a cabin like coach where they had to bring pre-purchased snacks?

@JJ: You are absolutely right.

Tennesse = Safe Driving?

2009-07-08T21:17:00.004-05:00

Well, that is how the local media will be spinning it after Allstate's 5th Annual Best Drivers Report. The top ten:

Sioux Falls, S.D.
Fort Collins, Colo.
Chattanooga, Tenn. (21.4% better than the national average)
Cedar Rapids, Iowa
Knoxville, Tenn. (19% better than the national average)
Fort Wayne, Ind.
Lexington-Fayette, Ky.
Eugene, Ore.
Boise, Idaho
Colorado Springs, Colo

After driving here for five months I have to come to the conclusion that either (a) Tennesse drivers are less likely to get into accidents but not neccesarily due to safer driving* or (b) I really have no idea how bad the rest of the country drives.

Minneapolis and St. Paul come in at 39 (4.5% better than the national average) and 41 (3.6% better than the national average), respectively.

P.S. As I was looking for something regarding methodology on the study. The L.A. Times calls it an "in-depth analysis." Allstate says:

The Allstate Best Drivers Report is produced solely to boost the country’s discussion about safe driving and to increase awareness of the importance of being tolerant and attentive behind the wheel. The report is not used to determine auto insurance rates.

Uh huh. I am leaning towards option a above...

*E.g., safer driving conditions could be a factor.

"I'm Parked Somewhere Out Here..."

2009-07-06T15:03:00.001-05:00

Words you *don't* want to hear as you are walking around the parking lot with boards on your shoulder for a customer.

-------------------------------
Sent from my phone, which has spordically working "A" & "B" keys. oh, no spellcheck which I have become quite acostemed to.

More Penelope

2009-07-04T00:33:00.000-05:00

Guess this is mostly what I have pictures of on my phone.

Actually I have a couple more that are pretty good (not of the dogs!) but I need to blur out some identifing information.

Penelope Helping Katie Drive

2009-06-22T18:43:00.001-05:00

Little too big? Maybe?

2009-01-15T14:12:00.001-06:00

Work Responses to Photos

2008-11-21T13:48:00.000-06:00

(In response to this post)

Ironman Coworker: "Thanks, I'm not invincible!" I need to tell her invincibility is a good thing.

President or Whatever*: "I'm going to start calling you Master Chief." I'm ok with that.

*I don't remember his actual title because the company where I work is owned by another company. It is unclear whether we are technically a division or a fully own subsidiary (separate company). Moreover, our parent company is owned by two other companies.

It's complicated.

Watching Bethel

2008-11-19T21:12:00.000-06:00

This was rendered yesterday and slightly different from the rest, it goes at a slower speed. As I write I am working on what I hope are the final steps towards filtering out all of the night and weekend shots. I know I am making some progress at any rate.

Previous time lapses can be found here, the first post on the subject here. Links provided mostly because this post is aimed at a certain high level person at Bethel whom I hope is able to find some use of this.

As long as I am at that, I have to thank Dr. KT for pressing me to show this to others at Bethel, I know that at least one high level person found it very helpful.

I don't think I ever told the story of how I started this project and it is kind of funny. Basically, a little over a year ago, I was sitting in a classroom. Slightly better than the dungeons of the HC (a nasty set of classrooms at BU), but no windows and right next to the building you can see above. I could feel the tremblings of the bulldozers.

I knew that last time BU had setup a major building project (the new dorms) they had set up a webcam. I even know someone that found the IP address of the webcam and found that s/he could pan/zoom it via their browser, but I digress.

Wanting a "window" to the outside I searched for the new Commons project on Bethel's website and indeed found the webcam. At first I just watched it in class (meaning, for the first day or something like that.) I quickly realized that it would make a pretty cool time lapse. Where "pretty cool" means that I would get a kick out of it. I like doing time lapses and have set up a couple on my own for, well, fun.

That really was the whole point and genesis of this project -- it was fun and I could do it. Usefulness was never really considered (hence the thanks to Dr. KT). By today I am just short of collecting 400 days worth of photos. I grab them both hourly in one set and by the minute in another set. The set shown has always been the former. The latter is the one I am working on to "perfect."

Guess we'll see how that goes in the coming days. It takes a little bit of time to render these (viz., putting all the relevant pictures into a video) especially on a computer that is at least 8 years old.

Work Photo

2008-11-18T14:22:00.006-06:00

Outside of everyone's cubicle at work is their name with a picture of them underneath in front of a wall with the company logo behind. I didn't have a photo, so I decided to make one.

You'd be surprised how good this looks printed out glossy at Walgreens...

Ironically, the only person to walk by and recognize the picture was the head of the company (or division, or whatever exactly the place I work at officially is.)

Another employee wanted a picture too (her real one wasn't good enough I guess), so I indulged.

Just That Cool

2008-11-14T13:49:00.003-06:00

So my brother, M, & myself are driving down to Knoxville, TN as I write. My brother and I wanted something that wasn't on the local radio or XM -- both of which were available to us.

Coming prepared I pulled out an FM transmitter, my laptop, power inverter, and cell phone. Together, we are streaming The Current (89.3 FM - Minnesota Public Radio) while driving on I-75 south through Kentucky mountains.

Yeah, we are just that cool.

The Things You Find

2008-11-10T22:46:00.001-06:00

I've been spending a lot of time packing (at least when this was written) and moving recently out of The Shelter back to my parents' house. Because I plan to move agian by January I am putting in more effort than normal so I don't essentially move twice. This is my most organized move every. It really gets better every time.

I think I've found all the instrutments I own, it is kinda of amazing. Apparently I just can't get rid of something musical after I get it. I apparently own all the following (and "tested" half of them while moving :-)

Accoustic Guitar
Electric Guitar & Amp
Recorder (for real, since 5th grade, and I still know the fingerings!)
A juice harp (aka "Jew's Harp", despite not being connected with Judisiasm.)
A tenor saxophone dating back to approximately 1929.
An shortened electric keyword (e.g., it is like a regular electric piano but missing an octave on either end.)
Harmonica in the key of C

I think that is it. I was pretty pumped about finding my juice harp again, and taking out the sax for a bit. I can actually play all of them but the keyboard (well, I can play most chords in the key of G and play simple melodies, but not really play.) But I figure not playing keyboard is compensated by playing Tuba. Unforatently, I don't have one of those on hand :-( They are pretty awesome!

I love playing all of these, even the onese I suck at (most).

Writ November 1st, 2008

How much do you think this cost?

2008-11-10T17:46:00.000-06:00

Can Your Computer Do This?

2008-11-06T20:52:00.002-06:00

My Computer Says:

 20:15:01 up 18 days, 23:56,  8 users,  load average: 1.91, 1.58, 1.58

What this means: my computer has been up for 18 days, 23 hours and 56 minutes while working the entire time.

This is why Tux* rocks my world.

Tux* is the officially unofficial mascot of Linux.

Already Unhappy

2008-11-04T07:07:00.002-06:00

Alright, so I am a little impatient. I want to know the results that are coming in now. In 2004 I watched the election uber-closely. I found the websites of various Secretaries of States which generally have a page that report the results as they come in (they don't report until polls close).

So I started looking. Yes, I started looking for these pages for Ohio, Florida and Minnesota at 6:45am. And I can't find any of them. None.

If anyone else knows where to find these pages I would be much obliged. In the meantime, I guess I have to rely on CNN, Fox News, and MSNBC exit polls (they generally don't report things at the same time.

LinkedIn Usefulness & Jobs

2008-11-02T13:00:00.000-06:00

Note bene: This is somewhat of a long post, but a fast read. If you want to skip most of it just read the Bottom Line at, uhm, the bottom. But, I think and hope this post may help people -- especially younger people -- understand LinkedIn.com.

Jen asked about LinkedIn.com, a social networking site for "professionals," whatever exactly that means. More specifically, Jen asked:

What do you think of LinkedIn? I got an invite to join some time ago and ignored it, but I've heard it mentioned much more since then. Not sure whether or not I want to join.

I really have no idea how helpful it actually is, it probably depends on who you are, but here are my thoughts on it.

First, one should know that more than 80% of jobs are found through personal connections; that is, despite your personal experience, most people get jobs through a friend or a friend of a friend etc. I got one of my best jobs this way and got two very nice interviews lined up the same way (and a straight up job offer overseas similarly.)

Unlike Facebook where anybody you've ever met is a "friend" LinkedIn focuses on creating adding "connections [friends, colleagues, managers, etc.]" that you actually know. Like Facebook, you can see your connections' connections. E.g., I can see the 37 connections of W.H., who is a connection of mine. I can't see the actual connections (the real people) past that but I can see that currently I have 34 connections, which branch out to over 700, which branch out to nearly 50,000.

It's not that far away from the hypothesis that everyone in the world is six steps away from everyone else. In this case, on LinkedIn, I know 34 people, who know over 700 people, who in turn (total) know over 49,000 people.

With LinkedIn you can recommend someone to someone else or vice versa. Say I know a middle school principal who is looking for a teacher. I also happen to know a teacher that I would personally endorse. I can use LinkedIn to recommend the teacher to the prinicipal (if they both are on LinkedIn).

Of course, in reality I would probably just pass along the name. The prinicipal may have reason to doubt me, or "trust, but verify," and look up the teach on LinkedIn (maybe I have a close relationship with the teacher). But with LinkedIn the prinicpal can look up the teacher and see who has "reccomended, [commentented on]" the teacher, and a brief resume if the teacher has set it up. I'll use my own examples here, instead of the possibly hyopthethical teacher.

Endorsements are essentially postive remarks from other people, usually people you have worked with. You request them from other people or simply endorse someone on your own. Here are a couple I have on my LinkedIn profile (these are slightly abbrevieated -- full names are shown on LinkedIn -- the details are verbatim.)

From T.E., May, 2007

Details of the Recommendation:

"Jon's knowledge of web design and implementation added great value to launching the site and the product. He brought things to the table we hadn't thought of."

Service Category: Graphic/Web Designer
Year first hired: 2006

Top Qualities: Personable, Expert, Creative

Another:

By M.S., May, 2007
Details of the Recommendation:

"Jon is a creative thinker who does not fear the unknown. He is able to enter into new situations with courage and honesty and develop his skill set to the best of his ability. Students, parents and coworkers love him! Dedication and perserverance are very strong traits!"

One More:

From J.S, May, 2007

Details of the Recommendation:

"Jonathan took on his role as a worship leader even though he had limited previous experience in that area. He exhibited a commitment to excellence by quickly improving his skills and knowledge, pulling together a team which included students and succeeded in providing meaningful times of worship. He has also accompanied students to conferences, where he has engaged in meaningful intereactions with them. His intellectual and spiritual depth enables him to tackle the hard questions young people often ask."

(You do have the option of accepting or rejecting recomendations, in the event someone it out to get you, even if they played nice at work.)

You can see my public profile at http://www.linkedin.com/pub/3/ab4/32. I still have to update it, but it is an abbrievated resume. To see my full profile you have to register.

LinkedIn has other features, such as joining groups (such as your alumini group), among other things. Some may make you appear more attractive on LinkedIn, but remember, your personal connections are the most important.

The Bottom Line:
I haven't used LinkedIn that much so I don't know how useful it really is, but it never hurts to join. It is probably one of those things worth doing no matter what. It's free, and can help.

It is nice to have an abbrievated resume always ready to go, as well as a portfolio of endorsements from people you have worked with. It is also cool to browse your contacts and theirs', as well as browse jobs with a resume/contacts already in place.

Finally, probably most importantly, people further into careers than I reccomend joining it. To be sure, I'll have my LinkedIn profile updated before I start looking for my next job (which will be quite soon.) I probably won't find it via LinkedIn, but if I do I'll be awfully glad I took the whole hour or so to get things setup properly.

Post on Posts

2008-11-02T12:00:00.000-06:00

Just as an FYI, as some my posts appear at "odd" times given that I am at work or doing something else. When I write more than a single post at once I schedule them out. It's better to have a couple posts a week on different days than two on a single days, or whatever.

So if you think I have "too much time at work," or are trying to figure out how I managed to post while driving (ok, so I can, just rarely do) that is why.

FYI @ Jen

2008-10-30T23:02:00.001-05:00

LinkedIn post coming up. Written, just need to check it. It is kinda late right now... (It even has screenshots!)

Just For Me?

2008-10-30T19:03:00.000-05:00

"Motivational" posters are all around the office. However I am suspicious that this less motivational one may have been put up just for me...

What Jonathan Can Work On

2008-10-29T21:41:00.000-05:00

So for the first time in a couple of years I logged into LinkedIn on the recommendation of my manager who has offered to endorse me on LI more than once. That's kinda cool.

I found an endorsement from someone else I had requested some time ago. The end of it:

"...As for something that Jonathan can work on? Well, that would be easy, I think he drank too much Mountain Dew! :)"

Schitz / I Talk Too Much Sometimes (But Not Usually)

2008-10-22T21:00:00.005-05:00

I have way too many ideas these days. I have so many posts written in my head, but I never seem to find the time and energy together to write them. I have at least half a dozen programming projects that are half done in my head. I think two of them have something resembling actual code.

I also am trying to be clever with the new name. I'm not sure its all that clever. But what the heh, I try. (If you don't know what it means look it up.*)

I do have one nice work story that I can share. I used to work for Slumberland Furniture in their IT department. I was technically an intern, but for all practical purposes got shuffled through nearly every position there, usually for no more than a couple of months. But I did everything.

I learned a lot of things there, and I am quite thankful the experience. One thing that I didn't have to learn was how to load paper into printers. I got that part down, uhm, let me think, elementary school. (I did learn how to load paper into printers older than me, however.)

At my soon to be alma mater students are not allowed to load paper into the printers. It really is about the stupidest policy in the world. The only redeeming part about the policy is that if you call the help desk they get someone up there pretty quickly. (I know because I had to call if there wasn't paper available for me to illegally load.)

So a couple days ago (meaning sometime since I starting working at my current job) I went to print out a massive document, I needed to load paper in the printer before hand. Basic, run of the mill HP LaserJet. I asked a collegue if I could load the paper myself. I could. I was pleased.

As I was loading the paper I went on eloquently wax and wane about how stupid my soon to be former school's policy was and how I could load paper perfectly well thank-you-very-much.

Can anyone guess where this is going? Yeah.

I completely bungled it. I managed to drop the entire tray. Right in front of the person I was boasting about my oh-so-clever paper loading skills. And then I had to restack the paper, get the drawer back while this collegue was watching and I was turning red as a pepper.

I finally got it done and made it back to my cubicle as fast as possible. The only time in my life I've been thankful for a three and a half walled grey cell. (Seriously, at least real jail cells have a full wall with bars. And they are white. Oh, and often have cable. Oh, and they get fed for free.)

When I was finally done with my job (it took a long time, it wasn't one of the big do-it-all machines, just a "regular" (home office type) printer. It was a big job. So I was told I should have printed it to the big-made-for-large-documents printer.

That was -- easily -- the worst day on the job. Needless to say my level of hubris dropped a couple of levels after that (I did redeem myself to some degree later, but I can't blog about it.)

Worst part, I really, really, deserved it. Really really.

*It's Greek: +3 cool points for my blog...

"I made cupcakes..."

2008-10-20T10:51:00.000-05:00

I made cupcakes, please help yourself, they are in the empty marketing cube

That is a nice email to be reading as soon as you get into work. Of course, I maybe be violating some confidentiality:

This email message and any attachments are for the sole use of the intended recipient(s) and may contain information that is proprietary to [The Company] and/or its subsidiaries or otherwise confidential or legally privileged. If you have received this message in error, please notify the sender by reply, and delete all copies of this message and any attachments. If you are the intended recipient you may use the information contained in this message and any files attached to this message only as authorized by [The Company]. Files attached to this message may only be transmitted using secure systems and appropriate means of encryption, and must be secured using the same level of password and security protection with which the file was provided to you. Any unauthorized use, dissemination or disclosure of this message or its attachments is strictly prohibited.

Watching Bethel

2008-10-15T21:21:00.003-05:00

It's been a bit. This one goes slower, kinda cool to watch. At some point (sadly, perhaps a month out) that will be much longer and thus smoother. It is really cool to be able to watch the trucks moving around (as opposed to a flash here and a flash there).

"This is a free country."

2008-10-14T22:29:00.001-05:00

"No, this is a democracy and the majority of us don't like what is going on here." - Ice-T (sp?) on CSI:SVU

Responding to, uhm some sort of "bad guy."

I Am the Awesome

2008-10-11T13:57:00.002-05:00

On Thursday I had to get to the airport so I could visit Knoxville. The airport is 30 minutes away, I had to be there by 5:25 am.

I left at 5:00.

I was there at 5:20.

I am the Awesome.

Voter Registration Online, Kinda

2008-10-09T13:49:00.004-05:00

Both campaigns have made it incredibly easy to register online, but I will present the McCain link because that is what I have in front of me. Basically it's just like filling out the form on paper, except that the site populates all the fields in the appropriate form for your state, you download the PDF and... mail it. That last part is weird. But whatever. Maybe other states have straight-up online registration, just not MN.

https://secure.johnmccain.com/ActionCenter/registertovote/information.aspx

@Tubagirl: I didn't forget you! You and Katie were two, so Jen & J doubled my readers.

Am I A Bad Person For This?

2008-09-28T15:21:00.001-05:00

CNN just ran an article announcing that Congress finally announced their resuce bill. From the article:

Lawmakers' goal is to shore up a deal before financial markets around the world open on Sunday evening.

By which they mean the Tokyo Stock Exchange. Naturally, the first thing I do is to look up the time in Japan, they are 14 hours ahead of CST (3:00pm here 5:00am there). Next I look up the hours for the TSE: trading starts at 9:00am.

Finally I have to smile, in kind of an evil way, at the thought of over 400 congress-persons running around (literally) trying to find the votes to get this to go through.

Guys, you have 3 hours and 39 minutes to find the votes, pass the bill, and get it signed.

Enjoy.

Up Too Late / The Bailout

2008-09-28T00:02:00.007-05:00

First, I don't really know why I am up right now. I really need my sleep. Second, on a topic I wasn't going to blog about...

CNN has an article titled: Congressional Leaders Reach Tentative Deal On Bailout. By then end of this post it will have been updated in under 20 minutes and hence is scarce on details. But there is a single part of the three paragraphed article I want to quote and comment on:

The aim of the deal is to prevent credit from drying up and causing a meltdown of the U.S. economy.

First, we are talking about the world economy. There is saying that when the U.S. sneezes (economically) the rest of the world catches cold. This is much bigger than the average joe understands.
Second, when CNN says "meltdown" they mean it. The MSM (mainstream media) hasn't been completely truthful on the current crisis (and I will call it a crisis). The financial periodicals are comparing it to late 1929 -- the beginning of the Great Depression -- and for good reason.
Third, damn near every American (or person on this planet for that matter) will be affected by this deal. You make think that New York is too far away to matter but odds are your mutual fund, 401k, or pension is tied up in this mess. Sorry, but it sucks for you.
Fourth, CNN says "aim." The real point here is the people that understand the current situation (there are very few, a few dozen at most; some of us simply believe those people are right [and maybe understand why they are]) may or may not be fixed by a "Rescue Package." This is shooting from the hip, that is not secret, but there isn't a better plan. We are certainly damned if we don't pass this bill (and the global economy) and may be if we do. The only certainty is that not trying is sure to fail; the bill at least has a chance to help things.
Fifth (I am almost done): don't blame your incumbents come election time, even though they will have almost certainly voted for a $700b bill that you don't like. Given the reasons above it is the most responsible thing to do even if their constituents do not like it.
Finally: I won't say much more about this in future posts unless someone specifically asks me to in a comment. I am a finance/econ major, even if I lack a PhD. I can explain the broadest components of the crisis, the bill, and why it matters if anyone cares. (E.g., what drying up credit means [more than most people realize] and why this is so important [the aspects the MSM keeps missing.])

P.S. Rumor is that I have another reader. A 250% increase in a month isn't bad! (Ok, so that means 5 people...)

P.P.S.: For most of the people that read (meaning all five) who care very little about this type of post I have another coming up. I just have to actually type up half of it, the half that was written in pencil instead of typed. And I should have another Bethel University Commons Time Lapse Video up soon.

Ooops...

2008-09-24T17:47:00.002-05:00

At least it's the first time, not again. I think I just annoyed (or at least really confused) a VP. It's a long story. Still, note to self: do not approach [VP] again unless it is with good news...

On a Musical Note

2008-09-22T09:58:00.000-05:00

I just have to get this out: Bill Gaither is worse than Perry Como, by a lot. The songs in and of themselves are ok, but not the performance. Maybe he thought he was Frank Sinatra, because it sounds like he is trying to croon like him. And no one croons like Old Blue Eyes.

The Worst Time to Blog

2008-09-21T17:54:00.000-05:00

Is when you are bored. Very. Bored.

The writing tends to lack any sense of spontaneity and often fails to attract any interest -- especially from the writer. Back in the day this was never a problem, or at least rarely. At least for me. There was always news. And I mean real news, you know, the stuff that is interesting.

Today the news is dominated by piddling topics such as presidential elections and a financial crisis or something on Wall Street. Wall Street is in New York and that is too far away for me to actually care about.

And the politics, the politics are quickly becoming incredibly boring. Seriously, when the best I can do is make fun of attack emails it is bad. When I was a youngster there was always a president, high ranking official, or congressperson having an affair, being charged with murder, starting the most absurd policy changes ever. Today the news centers around whether John McCain or Barack Obama is running a dirtier campaign, whether Palin is an angel or a demon, and what people think of either campaign. I don't care what other people think of the campaigns, I care about what I think.

In a completely separate event readers of my blog just went up by 50%; yup, I have one more reader.

If rather alarming events (and non-events) keep on happening at such an astounding rate I make have to take the unprecedented step of blogging on a regular basis and trying to make it interesting.

Firefox is the Safest Browser Because...

2008-09-16T10:15:00.003-05:00

Recently the Firefox start page started advertising itself as the world's safest browser. For the record the merits of this are up for debate, no one has decisively claimed that title yet. (Also, the add-in's that have helped make FF so popular may increase or decrease security.)

Anyway, the best part of the whole thing is this:

Using [Firefox] is the safest way to surf the web because:

We don’t try to tackle the problem alone. An international community of security experts is working around the clock to make your web browsing safer (thanks to our open source way of doing things). It’s like having your neighborhood watch led by a group of highly trained ninjas. [Emphasis Added]
[...]

Hmk, so that's what those Firefox developer's are up to...

@ Tubagirl: Not all of my posts that show up were written during work hours, but scheduled to show up during the morning. If I write several posts at once I generally schedule them out two or three days in a row.

The Things You Can't Blog About

2008-09-14T11:09:00.000-05:00

I've always disliked the number of things I can't blog about because they usually are the most amusing. I can't blog about most things at work, except for the boring stuff, and even then I have to make sure I'm not disclosing any proprietary information.

I can't blog about half the stuff that happens at my house to protect the guilty (including myself at times).

I can blog about politics (and obviously do) but unless I make it particularly amusing neither of my two readers (seriously, both, that's it) care much. (Although over half my traffic comes from search engines almost all of them leave the page immediately).

Ditto about most geeky stuff.

Guess it will just be a boring blog unless I decide to start making up life stories. Actually, that could be fun...

"PC Load Letter"

2008-09-12T10:18:00.000-05:00

It's either a great day or a horrible day at the office when half the morning conversation revovles around the movie Office Space. Stuff's going well so far so I'm going to take this as a good sign.

YOU Won't Get Anything From Me Either

2008-09-11T08:00:00.005-05:00

I wanted a free Obama button (ironically, it might arrive after the election) and MoveOn.Org (MOO) started sending me emails, which I knew would happen.

I know that both of my readers are more interested in my personal life than my politics. But I still like writing about politics. I promise I'll put personal stuff in here soon as well. Soon.

Dear MoveOn member,

I'm not your monkey [member].

Did you watch Sarah Palin's speech last night?[Last night meaning at the RNC convention] [...]

No.

...The speech told us a lot about her.

That was the point.

It told us that she can distort the facts and deliver mean-spirited zingers with the best of them. It told us that if Rush Limbaugh or Ann Coulter ever need a stand-in, she'd be a great pick.

So, she's in politics. Like you! (And heh, Rush and Ann are entertaining, if vulgar in what they put out. That's kinda the point. Like you!)

It told us that she can be condescending and dismissive of the real work Barack Obama did helping real people on the South Side of Chicago...

If true this part is quite condemning.

...It told us that she can uphold the long Republican tradition of lying about Democratic tax cuts—even though Obama's plan would give Americans a bigger break than McCain's.

Read: Tax breaks aimed at the middle class, not the upper. Even though tax breaks virtually always benefit the upper class.* (See Obama's The Audacity of Hope to understand my point)

But the speech—written by one of President Bush's speechwriters...

So what? Hope the speechwriterr is good at writing speeches. That is what they are supposed to do. Do you expect them to use Barack's speech writers?

...didn't tell us the truth about Sarah Palin's extremist positions...

Ah, she IS a conservative! NO WAY for a REPUBLICAN!

...And the more that people know her far-right views, the less they support her. (There's a partial list below.)

Uhm, right. Aren't you just say she was mobilizing the Republican base?

One of the best ways to get the word out about Palin is to write a letter to the editor of your local paper.

Read: Write our talking points to your favorite paper (or all of them)!

Today's a great day to write because this is very relevant—it just happened last night. Plus, our online tool makes it easy and has great tips.

Read (great tips): Our talking points

Please take a few minutes to write a quick letter to the editor now:

No.

http://pol.moveon.org/lte?campaign_id=95&id=13709-10483324-ww1oKlx&t=3

Palin's speech and the reaction to it also made clear why McCain picked her. It wasn't a decision about who's most qualified to serve a heart-beat away from the presidency—it was a political decision about pleasing the far-right base of the Republican party...

I said it first! It is about mobilizing [see noted right below] the base and getting votes. The kind of things you need to do to get elected!

Note: First to say it when this was written, not posted (others have gotten to it; it's not like it isn't obvious...)

Writing a letter to your local paper is a great way to make sure voters understand that...

...Is a great way to get our talking points across (a normal tactic of all sides).

...The opinion pages are the most widely-read pages of the newspaper...

Really? (For seriously!) I would have guessed weather followed by sports.

...Write today, and your letter's a lot more likely to get published because it's so topical..

Topical? "Palin is bad because she is a conservative?" (Like many Republicans...)

...It'll help sway the editorial board too.

Sad but true.

Here are a bunch of points you might want to include in your letter:

Read: The talking points I was talking about earlier.

Palin recently said that the war in Iraq is "God's task."

Always dangerous when leaders thing they are the tool that God uses. (Although Biblically this is true, but complicated.) Of course, if she actually means it's God's task, not ours, that is hard to argue with (and I would not).

She's even admitted she hasn't thought about the war much—just last year she was quoted saying, "I've been so focused on state government, I haven't really focused much on the war in Iraq." ^{1, 2}

I wonder -- seriously -- if that is a bad thing for a state governor.

Palin has actively sought the support of the fringe Alaska Independence Party.Six months ago, Palin told members of the group—who advocate for a vote on secession from the union—to "keep up the good work" and "wished the party luck on what she called its 'inspiring convention.'" ³

This is politics...

Palin wants to teach creationism in public schools...

Bad. Bad Bad Bad.

She hasn't made clear whether she thinks evolution is a fact.⁴

Some of us call this an open mind. Especially for a conservative conservative.

Palin doesn't believe that humans contribute to global warming. Speaking about climate change, she said, "I'm not one though who would attribute it to being manmade." ⁵

Her view is slightly (if only so) more nuanced than that.

Palin has close ties to Big Oil. Her inauguration was even sponsored by BP. ⁶

EVERY POLITICIAN HAS TIES TO OIL. IT POWERS THIS COUNTRY! You had better hope that they know big oil.

Palin is extremely anti-choice. She doesn't even support abortion in the case of rape or incest. ⁷

Not gonna support MO.o's example, but yes, it is pretty far right.

Palin opposes comprehensive sex-ed in public schools. She's said she will only support abstinence-only approaches. ⁸

As mayor, Palin tried to ban books from the library.

Which books?

Palin asked the library how she might go about banning books because some had inappropriate language in them—shocking the librarian, Mary Ellen Baker. According to Time, "news reports from the time show that Palin had threatened to fire Baker for not giving "full support" to the mayor." ⁹

She DID support the Bridge to Nowhere (before she opposed it). Palin claimed that she said "thanks, but no thanks" to the infamous Bridge to Nowhere. But in 2006, Palin supported the project repeatedly, saying that Alaska should take advantage of earmarks "while our congressional delegation is in a strong position to assist." ¹⁰

[Bridge] Yup, pretty much more or less. She most definately was playing politics to her advantage there.

The plain fact of the matter is that Sarah Palin did a bang-up job delivering a Karl Rove-style political attack speech last night...

And Rove has done quite well. In 2004 all that was needed was a candidate that we thought could still breath and think!

...That makes her a skilled politician but it doesn't make her views any more palatable for voters...

It does make her more palatable for voters or she wouldn't have said it. This is POLITICS!!!

...Americans don't really want another far-right, anti-science ideologue in the White House.

Some do, actually.

Please help get the word out about where Sarah Palin really stands on the issues.

I think we all actually know, as you pointed out so eloquently throughout most of this letter.

http://pol.moveon.org/lte?campaign_id=95&id=13709-10483324-ww1oKlx&t=4

Thanks for all you do.

Nothing for MO.o!

–Nita, Ilyse, Wes, Karin and the rest of the team

Hooray!

P.S. If you haven't seen it, check out the Daily Show clip on Palin. It's worth a watch

http://www.moveon.org/r?r=24753&id=13709-10483324-ww1oKlx&t=5

It's probably funy. That is what Comedy Central does. I haven't seen it yet though.

[MO.o] Sources

1. "Palin: Iraq war 'a task that is from God'," Associated Press, September 3, 2008

http://www.moveon.org/r?r=24701&id=13709-10483324-ww1oKlx&t=6

2. "Palin wasn't 'really focused much' on the Iraq war," ThinkProgress, August 30, 2008

http://www.moveon.org/r?r=24702&id=13709-10483324-ww1oKlx&t=7

3. "The Sarah Palin Digest," ThinkProgress, September 4, 2008

http://thinkprogress.org/palin-digest/

4. "McCain and Palin differ on issues," Associated Press, September 3, 2008

http://www.moveon.org/r?r=24703&id=13709-10483324-ww1oKlx&t=8

5. Ibid

6. The Sarah Palin Digest," ThinkProgress, September 4, 2008

http://thinkprogress.org/palin-digest/

7. Ibid

8. Ibid.

9. "Mayor Palin: A Rough Record," Time, September 2, 2008

http://www.moveon.org/r?r=24704&id=13709-10483324-ww1oKlx&t=9

10. The Sarah Palin Digest," ThinkProgress, September 4, 2008

http://thinkprogress.org/palin-digest/
I do like sources part. Even if I haven't checked most of them out.

Want to support our work?..

Obama's? Probably. MoveOn.org's? No.

We're entirely funded by our 3.5 million members—no corporate contributions, no big checks from CEOs. And our tiny staff ensures that small contributions go a long way. Chip in here.

No. NO chipping in to MoveOn from madjon.

mj's notes:

*They have more money, so any tax break helps them. It skews the numbers a bit so that it looks like the breaks were "only" for the wealthy. BUT a 5% tax break will benefit the top 1% of income earners (in dollars) more than the rest of us. Simple math:

$100m * 105%[**] = $5m saved.
$30k * 105%[**] = $1,500 saved

Even though both sides get a 5% tax break.

**105% being a 5% tax break, completely made up by me.

Watching Bethel: Getting Close

2008-09-10T16:36:00.002-05:00

It's getting more fun to watch the time lapse -- especially as I have posted one in over two months! It is getting really close to completion. I am still planning out perfecting my algorithm that picks out what pictures to use and what ones to throw away. I'll do it as soon as I have time. Work is sucking up a lot of that.

Anyway, enjoy. This was rendered fresh this morning!

Browser Crash... Go Boom

2008-09-10T09:14:00.002-05:00

I've been playing with Google's new Chrome Browser, a browser that they call in Beta, but that is pushing it. Anyway, there was a bug loading a page so I found their bug reporting tool and found one of the best bug reporting options ever: "Browser crash... go boom".

The only other computer error message that comes close to beating this is the GIMP's out of memory message, "Out of memory. Bad things will happen soon!"

See? Geeks can be funny!

Breaks and Random Facts

2008-09-07T13:08:00.000-05:00

Recently I've started getting some pretty severe pain in my lower right arm, a single tendon. I know because I can feel it. Almost no doubt from using my center mouse wheel too much. I use it navigating through records in MS Access, scrolling on webpages, etc.

So I did some research on computer ergonomics and found out that I am doing almost everything the wrong way. One of the best practices is to take 30 second "micro breaks" every ten minutes. There is no way I am ever going to hit every ten, but maybe I can do 20 or 30. So I go to take my first break, but start by navigating to http://time.gov because I know they have a clock with seconds there. And course, as I am "breaking" from typing everything I want to do is check out who is on IM, write blog posts, etc. Take me a far amount of discipline to sit in front of my computer doing nothing for 30 seconds.

While at time.gov I was reminded of an extremely random and amusing fact. Greenich/Zulu time is now called Coordinated Universal Time. Part of an international effort to get all the countries in the world (or all that have the capability) to be using the same time. The acronym for this is UTC, which obviously does not match Coordinatd Universal Time. Apparently this was a comprismise. The Powers That Be couldn't find an acronym that matched both French and English reprentations of their new name. So they went with one that didn't match anything.

Politics really can be funny.

A Thought on Attack Ads/Energy

2008-09-03T17:41:00.003-05:00

P.S. (PRE-Script): There will be a few more political posts, especially as we get down to Novemeber, but I know my readers don't care a whole lot about my views on politics. This isn't a surprise, everyone has their views and very rarely are they nuanced enough to be worth reading. I'll try to get some more personal stuff up. Maybe "creative writing," if I can get around to it. At any rate...

I have no problem with attack ads. Not in theory at any rate. I don't want to know just why I should vote for a given candidate, I want to know why I should vote for him or her instead of the other candidate. Odds are they both have some pretty good ideas, and I want to see them fight over which ones are actually better.

Of course, the ads Al Franken has been running (at least on the radio) in Minnesota are pretty ridiculous. They go something like, "Norm Coleman is in bed with special interests because he [insert non-substantive routine political action here.]"

McCain's "Biggest Celebrity in the World" ad was no better -- but at least I got to see the entertaining backfire.

What would be really interesting is an attack ad that doesn't boil down to a 3 second soundbite, or is so easily dismissed. Everybody accuses everybody of being in bed with special interests, a term so vaguely defined I'm not sure what it means. Except that it is bad. Instead I would like to hear a 30 second ad that goes something like:

[Person]'s energy policy is going to drive [region and/or country] into further trouble by relying on more drilling. At best, digging into ANWAR and putting in more off-shore drilling rigs will increase the world's oil supply by about 1% -- after 10 years. Not nearly enough to affect gas or energy prices in a way you'll notice at home. Vote for [the other person] who doesn't support ineffective energy policies.

That's gotta be about 30 seconds. The next ad would explain why "alternative energy" (another vague term) is a better deal.

Bonus: Yes, my fake ad does support my own view on energy. Drilling anywhere around the U.S. isn't going to help us anytime soon and OPEC can respond by cutting production whenever it wants to. We even throw out the whole environment ruining thing because idea is almost as bad as E85 (sorry Iowa, Ohio) which may take as much energy to make as it produces -- or more.* McCain and Obama differ mostly in how much drilling we do and how much money we put into alternative energy.

*I'm sure I posted on this at some point in the past. Probably a long time ago. See Time's The Green Energy Scam for more details. But basically, E85 is the worst alternative energy idea anybody has put into practice yet. It's singular strength is that is in essence a subsidy for American farmers.

You Won't Get My Money From This Email

2008-09-03T17:31:00.000-05:00

From my inbox:

[madjon]--

In the next 36 hours, the McCain campaign will be pouring millions of dollars -- if not tens of millions -- into negative attack ads against Barack Obama.

This is what political campaigns do.

Before John McCain accepts the Republican nomination on Thursday, his campaign has to spend every last dollar of primary funds they've raked in from Washington lobbyists and special interest PACs.

Yours had to do the same thing.

Just yesterday, they aired a new negative ad in 14 swing states. His campaign manager even admitted that all McCain has to rely on is attacks, saying that for them, "This election is not about issues."

Full quote: "'This election is not about issues,' said Davis. 'This election is about a composite view of what people take away from these candidates.'"

Read: This is about McCain vs. Obama, not what they platforms they stand on. And he is more right than wrong (read the article if you want, Davis isn't denying that people care about the issues, just not as much as personalities this time around. On the other hand, that's always been the case...)

He doesn't want Americans to notice that the Republican platform is the most extreme we've ever seen -- opposing stem cell research, denying a woman's right to choose no matter what the circumstance, and continuing to spend $10 billion a month in Iraq.

Generally both sides want at least the party base to know the platform...

With so much at stake, we can't allow another election to be determined by petty and divisive political tactics.

Including this damned email.

Make a donation of $5 or more to fight back against an unprecedented week of negativity from John McCain.

Not from this email.

The McCain campaign is trying to distract voters from the real issues -- so we're going to focus on what they're trying to hide.

They've come out against the life-saving possibilities of stem cell research.

For years now in fact.

They don't even mention protecting equal pay for equal work.

For years now in fact.

They support huge tax cuts for the wealthiest 2% of Americans.

For years now in fact.

They've almost completely ignored the $10 billion we're spending every month in Iraq.

For years now in fact.

And they make zero exceptions for a woman's right to choose -- even in cases of rape, incest, or to protect the life of the mother.

For years now in fact.

If that all sounds like more of the same, that's because it is.

For years now in fact.

John McCain is offering a third term of the disastrous Bush agenda...

Agreed.

...so it's no wonder his campaign would choose to focus on attacks instead of issues.

The next President is the issue of Presidential elections. Thus, an attack ad against Obama does constitute an ad concerning an issue.

Please make your donation of $5 or more today:

Again, not from this email.

https://donate.barackobama.com/fightback

I know we've asked a lot from supporters like you recently, and many of you contributed just last week.

I forgot.

But the stakes are high...

Yes, it's a Presidential election.

...and there are less than 9 weeks before Election Day. It's going to require unprecedented resources to defeat John McCain...

Like a breathing Democrat?

...and bring about the change America so desperately needs.

That's gonna be the hard part.

Thank you for all you do,

Including such a response to your emails?

David

David Plouffe
Campaign Manager
Obama for America

Wildcards in Excel

2008-08-13T12:59:00.000-05:00

Recently at work we had a situation where we had to remove just under 1,200 vendor part numbers from the names of our products. E.g., we had "Name of product (Vendor Part #123), 10 ounces." The vendor part numbers had gotten into our spreadsheet with said (internal) names accidently. (It's a long story. And it's not our fault.)

So I ended up writing a longer email about replacing these vendor part numbers with nothing (E.g., so pretend product name becomes "Name of product, 10 ounces.") and thought I might as well share it, editted only to make it generic. VP stands for Vendor Part, VP# for Vendor Part Number. (A serif font [a font with "feet"] is used to make some of the quotations, literally, clearer.)

I thought that this would work but decided to check first.

If you search for "(VP*)" and replace it with "" (nothing) all VP#'s should disappear. However, you'll have two problems, the first is that there will be a lot of double spaces, one from each side of the parentheses. So you'll have to do another find and replace, this time for " " (two spaces) replacing it with " " (one space).

Also, in some cases ", " precedes the VP#, e.g., "Tumbler, (VP123) 10oz" which would yield "Tumbler, 10oz" when you were done. So you might want to search for ", (VP*)" replacing it with a single space, then searching for "(VP*)" replacing it with "", and then finally replacing all the double spaces with a single space. If you want to make sure there aren't double spaces run the same search a couple of times. When I've done this in the past I've left triple or quadruple spaces somewhere in whatever data I was working with. Each find and replace would take out one space, from 4 to 3, from 3 to 2, and finally from 2 to 1.

Obviously, all the searches don't actually have the quotes around them when you stick them into Excel. "*" is a wildcard that matches all characters. So if we are looking at the word "Wildcard", "Wild*" would match it, "*dca*" would match it and so on. "?" is a single wildcard that only matches a single character. Looking at "Wildcard" again, "?ildcard" would match, "Wil?card" would, "W???card" would, but "W?dcard" would not (missing either the "i" or the "l"). You can combine them: "?ildca*" would match. "*car?" would match any string that had "car" in it.

In Excel, prepending a tilde to the wildcards searches for the actual wildcard. So if a question mark is what you are looking for you need to prepend a tilde to it.

"*" and "?" are fairly standard wildcards, the preceding tilde to cancel them as wildcards isn't as much. Probably across MS Office, but I don't know beyond that.

Ok, that was a longer email than I meant to write...

Al, You're Done

2008-08-01T06:12:00.003-05:00

Greenspan: Economy 'on the brink' of recession - CNBC TV- msnbc.com

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said Thursday that the U.S. housing market is “nowhere near the bottom” and that the U.S. economy is “right on the brink” of slipping into a recession...

Calling the current crisis in the financial markets a "once-in-a-century phenomenon," Greenspan said the Treasury had no choice in its recent moves to backstop the two government-sponsored mortgage finance giants, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. But he said the government will probably have to nationalize the two companies, calling them a "major accident waiting to happen."

I really cannot figure out what this guy is up to, he seems to have recently gone on a power trip and will not stop. It is extremely inappropriate for him to be constantly critiquing the U.S. fiscal policies at this point: Al, you already had 20 years as chair of the Fed, step down for real now.

I shouldn't say I can't figure it out, it is rather obvious. He is trying to set policy -- larger policies than he could have set while in office -- in "retirement." He is probably still trying to save his legacy, which has been tarnished by whatever, exactly, we are in (it is still difficult to call it a recession). The low interest rates enjoyed by Americans and the rest of the world in the early part of this millennium were largely set by Greenspan. They also are largely seen as creating the housing bubble which is still having major effects on the economy as banks fail, don't have extra capital, and people seeking capital (debt: mortgages, business loans, etc.) can't get it because of that.

Still, this is a bizarre show to be watching, even for Al.

Watching Bethel

2008-07-01T20:28:00.000-05:00

I haven't posted a time lapse for awhile so I thought I would. This was rendered yesterday.

Digital Intimacy

2008-06-26T21:45:00.002-05:00

BK is currently posting a book (really most of a journal) that bears out some pretty heavy stuff. At least so far. A question regarding the correct spelling of dialog versus dialogue sparked an interesting discussion of both the correct spelling and whether we are, "if we are not subconsciously abbreviating life, feelings, sharing, intimacy...."

I am republishing that bit here, because I think that it is an interesting question and has some interesting answers.

BK:

Aha, the game is afoot...or would that be a foot?

Good volley on the dialogue/dialog quandary. Here's a comment from a literature lover and someone who loves the art of words and the way they impact the art of our lives: we risk as a culture that has been largely trending towards dehuamization through technology. We want everything quicker, faster, shorter. We are more and more looking for shorter ways to do...everything. We are abbreviating words, thoughts and feelings -- lol, cul8r, etc. Makes me wonder if we are not subconsciously abbreviating life, feelings, sharing, intimacy....

tyhi :)

Me:

Man, I didn't understand half of that. I would suggest that while emotions, intimacy, etc. can be addressed in this digital age -- even with abbr's -- there still is nothing like face to face.

Couple of things that stand in the way of that statement however. First, the ReachTJ blog. That seemed to hit home pretty hard for 10,000-20,000 people. I haven't met most of them (obviously) but as I do I am almost always told they feel like they know me. And they do in a real, if not complete sense. A lot went down during that month, and a lot was beared (sp?). It was undoubtedly one of the most defining moments of my life, my family's life, and thousands of people watched in realtime. Which leads up to my second point...

Why are you publishing this if not to share some pretty deep and intimate stuff? These posts aren't "just" lessons about life/marriage etc. They are posts about BK's heart, his personal relationship with God. By the end there are going to be a lot of people that know you (again, in a real sense, if not complete), even if you don't know them. You and I have only met two or three times, but now I am "meeting" you twice a week, discussing (literally, when it comes to comments) some of the most important, intimate, secret, emotional, deep, dangerous, and exciting part of life.

In such a context, words and abbreviations matter only how well they communicate. And sometimes abbreviations work just as well (better occasionally, especially to express lighter emotions.)

-mj

(Guess I am chatty today!)

Certainly the digital age is allowing us to reach more people faster. And, ironically, the anonymity sometimes leads to deeper discussions than would otherwise be had.

Watching Bethel: A Little More In-Depth

2008-06-06T09:23:00.006-05:00

When I started this project I found that there was a pretty was way to differentiate between night and day (pictures), which is important so there isn't five seconds of blackness between each day. Done correctly, it even adds a nice fade in and fade out between days.

The way I did this was by looking at the number of different colors in a given picture. If it was under 4,000 it was nighttime. For sure. Until December 14th. On that day the construction workers started leaving a light on that pushed the number of colors up close to 10,000. Day shots generally have 45,000-60,000 different colors (yes, in one picture). However, upping my "border" value between day and night to 10,000 pretty eliminated any fades, and still included the night shots with the light on.

Hence, a different method has to be chosen. I have two choices, so far as I can tell. First, determine the average lightness of a picture to decide if it ought to be included in the time lapse. Second, figure out when the construction hours are, only include those pictures and write my own script for fades. The former is much easier.

For a visual idea of what "lightness" looks like in a photo I have posted an Excel graph below. The scale on lightness of is out of 255 for technical reasons so I put a couple of percentages in to make it easier to read. Essentially, during the day the lightness is always between 55% and 63%. A lightness of zero is complete blackness, and a lightness of 100% would be pure white, so finding that the average lightness is somewhere in the middle isn't a big surprise.

The vertical axis is the lightness value of a picture (one grabbed every minute) and the horizontal axis is what minute of the say it is. A day has 1,400 minutes, so 7,200 is high noon. You can see how the day widens and narrows from the fall through the spring, although I should note that the values from October and May in the graph are not complete. Hence, I expect that the May curve would widen out a bit. Finally, the horizontal axis doesn't start at 0 or end at 1,400. They are just straight lines before and past those points respectively, so I cut them out.

P.S. I may move back to madjon.net soon. Maybe, designing a website isn't easy... But I'm also not a huge fan of Blogger anymore.

Why Do Economists Love Money?

2008-05-25T21:54:00.000-05:00

Before I ever start of this post, I don't want to hear anyone saying, "you can't really measure [this or that]," or "you can't put a price on [whatever]." Measuring intangible things is always difficult -- an art as much as a science. No one is arguing this. This post is about explaining why we try. So don't try to pick apart my examples I know they aren't perfect. They all need a million caveats. If that is all you are after you'll miss the point. [Rant done.]

Economists are often accused of "only" caring about dollars, about money. And this is always meant in a pejoratively. I feel that this accusation needs a defense.

Guilty as charged. Kinda of...

Economists do care about dollars, in general at least, but it ought not be thought of as a bad thing. Technically, economists care about cost, not dollars. Cost includes everything; if you have a family there is a trade-off between seeing your family or working an extra hour, or paying a babysitter to go out to eat with your spouse (and whatever the date costs.) However, especially in the former case, it is difficult to measure "how much" an hour with your family is worth compared to an extra hour at work -- especially if you need the money to keep the lights on or something of the sort. But this still doesn't get to the heart of why we use dollars.

Consider the latter case, the cost of spending time with your spouse is roughly however much it costs for someone else to watch the kids, in this case, dollars work pretty well. Now try to compare the two cases, which "costs" more, spending an extra hour at work or spending extra time with your spouse? Obviously, it is difficult to compare, especially given that the standards often differ. So what's the point?

Policy still needs to be set -- that is the point. A tax rate, subsidies, and everything else economic need to be set (tax rates, subsidized farming/housing, etc.). There are three choices as to how one does one sets them; (1) whatever gets ones reelected/keep one's job/whatever, (2) ad hoc, taking a stab in the dark, maybe using intuitions or an Owigi board, or (3) using the best data one has available. Economics is about (3), that is, about providing the data for (3).

It is up to policy makers to make policy. Economists -- acting*** as economists -- serve to provide data, not to make policy; that is the job of elected officials. To date, there is no better benchmark aside from the dollar (or some other currency) to use as a constant data (e.g, a better, more consistent benchmark).

To sum it up, economists are scientists doing the best that they know how. There aren't "laws" in economics like there are in physics. Physicists have the advantage of being able to use consistent measurements such as meters or square centimeters or whatever. And these measurements are capable of staying the same across different situations. Economists lack such measurements.** They (we? I? You?) have the dollar. There is no metric system in economics.

To repeat myself, it is ok -- no, good -- that economists use the dollar (or whatever). As far we we know, there is no other way to measure the costs of something. Like the physical scientists economists exist to provide data, not policy. Only the information to make policy.

May I try to put it more clearly. The job of an economist is to analyze a situation or policy and predicate what will happen. It us up to policy-makers (the elected officials) to make the best sense of the analysis.

Mose succienty: Economists use the dollar (or some other money currency) to analyze various situations/policies. And economists as an economist *only* provide data. If am economists advocates some policy or another s/he no longer acts and economist,

*Remember the opening paragraph; an extra hour of work might be be keeping the electricity on, but that is not the point.

**Currencies don't stay stable, moreover the laws of gravity are nothing like the cost of babysitters.

***Economists suggesting and/or advocating some policy are no longer acting as economists.

Musopen and Sonatas Torrent Seed

2008-05-23T09:00:00.003-05:00

See below for info on the torrent.

I just read about an awesome site on Arstechnica. Musopen.com is a site dedicated to putting recordings and sheet music of classical music in the public domain. E.g., you can now download Beethoven's fifth symphony, or use it in a video, or do whatever you want with for free. Legally.

They just finished all off Beethoven's sonatas, and, naturally, I had to have them all. And it's thanks to people like me that their bandwidth bill goes through the roof.

At this point if all you care about is this cool new site you can stop reading. If you want all of Beethoven's sonatas read about the torrent below.

The Torrent
To help with the bandwidth I created a torrent that is currently you can download here. It's being tracked by The Pirate Bay, an irony given the site's name and reputation, but it was the first public tracker I could find.

This torrent contains all of Beethoven's sonatas. All of them were downloaded from www.musopen.com on April 23^rd, 2008. It has everything that was available for download at the time except for Michael Hawley performing “Sonata No. 21 in C Major 'Waldstein', Op. 53,” as the files were returning 404 errors.

Important Note on Files

These are not the exact same files available from www.musopen.com. The metadata has been changed in almost all of them to be more standardized. The artist and composed for every piece is now “Ludwig van Beethoven,” the album artist is whoever performed the piece.

Each sonata also has it's own album now, taking the form of “Sonata no. X (www.musopen.com)” or “Sonata no. X (www.musopen.com / Artist)” if more than one person performed the sonata.

Finally, the sonata name has been removed from the track name. E.g., “Sonata No. 1 in F Minor, Op. 2 No. 1 - I. Allegro” is now simply “I. Allegro” as it has its own album.

Torrent File Structure

The file structure is fairly straightforward, when there is only one performer for the piece the structure is “Sonata Name/Track.mp3”. If more than one person performed a certain piece (such as no. 31) the structure becomes “Sonata Name/Performing Artist/track.mp3”.

Every folder has a file called “About.pdf” in it, which is simply a PDF from the page the sonata was downloaded from.

It's Dawn...

2008-05-21T06:02:00.002-05:00

That would be a perfect title for some sort of metaphor. Unfortunately it's not. I've been up for the last couple of hours (got about two hours of sleep before waking up and not sleeping anymore) working on my final project for Econometrics. Running Chow tests on an index of major furniture companies {1} and the Federal Funds rate. The time periods for the Chow tests were 1995-1999:2000-2008, and 1995-2000:2001-2008. The first test showed a stronger difference but was much less statistically significant.

In simple terms I am testing to see if the Federal Funds rate (the rate you always see reported) had different effects on my index for those time periods. In both cases it is obvious that after 2000/2001 the Federal Funds rate had a greater effect on my index than in the former time period (before 2000/2001). Unfortunately, the standard error is pretty high for the model I prefer.

To get to the point I've just been formatting the data for my stats program, running the tests, etc., then all of a sudden notice that my room has gotten much lighter. I look out the window and sure enough it's dawn.

I really don't know if this is a good sign or not...

Ask mj: "Clinically Proven"

2008-05-17T21:45:00.002-05:00

An anonymous reader asks mj: "What does 'clinically proven' mean? It's in all the commercials for drugs and whatnot. Is there anything that isn't clinically proven?"

The answer to the second part is yes and no. But you'll never hear someone advertise whether something that wasn't clinically proven.

The process of getting FDA approval for a drug is long and difficult, most drugs that companies start to develop never make it through the entire process which involves clinical studies near the end.

The studies are usually paid for (and often conducted by) the pharmaceutical company that creates the drug. The real catch, however, is that the company get to choose which studies they submit to the FDA and which ones they do not.* Moreover they are under no obligation to make the study public (e.g., publish it anywhere). The study is actually considered proprietary information.*

This post has been in the making for awhile, I was going to use Lunesta as an example which of course advertised itself as clinically proven, but previously did not post actual results of any of the clinical trials. Since that time at least one study is available on their website although details of the study are not provided which is necessary to actually evaluate whether the study was "good" or not.

The final note is important, it is extremely easy to spin studies however one wants. Hence the multiple headlines in the media, "New study suggests that [noun] [increases/decreases] chance of [disease/heart attack/stroke/whatever]." While I am not going to bother to go into details, but it is extremely difficult to both design and carry a good study (this has applications beyond medication, sociological studies, economic studies, etc., [basically anything that isn't a hard science] suffer many of the same difficulties.)

Final word: unless an independently conducted and publicly reviewed study was conducted "clincically proven" doesn't mean much at all. And don't expect the media to accurately report on "studies." Unless the organization takes a hard look at the study (which is rare) the reporting is from the abstract, which also means little by itself.

*This was at least true three months ago when the post was started. As far as I know it is still true, but I no longer remember the sources I used other than to say they were reputable.

Watching Bethel

2008-05-07T19:03:00.004-05:00

It's been a bit since I put up a time lapse so here is one from later today. I am also working on a better script to render it, to get rid of those nasty night pictures from where they left a light on.

I also need to start writing down some of the blog posts the keep popping into my head (really, pretty much completely written) but never make here. Maybe I'll more than two regular visitors that way...

Watching Bethel

2008-04-18T17:53:00.002-05:00

The latest, does not include today.

Actually... (aka Digital Recording II)

2008-04-17T07:32:00.001-05:00

Assuming the background of this post, the amount of digital recording of other peoples' lives that I have through email, chats, journals, etc., is pretty amazing as well.

For anyone getting worried, save for the unfortunate of my untimely demise,* this is pretty much inaccessible to anyone but me. And even then it depends on my memory; my memory jogged by my own pictures, emails, chats, journals, writings (and blogs for that matter), etc.

Still, if you are one of the people that still read my blog, I probably have more of your life recorded than you realize. Of course, given how "digital I am," this goes two ways. Maybe more toward me than towards you (whoever you are, viz., my life has more digital recordings than most peoples'.)

*Untimely meaning before I am... old. In the most usual sense. E.g., before (or slightly before) I hit my expected lifespan. On the other hand, given the stunts that I have pulled I figure my expected lifespan is somewhere around 15, which I have obviously passed. Given that, I figure my new one is -- give or take -- 30.

Stripping Down Filenames in Bash

2008-04-12T18:51:00.003-05:00

I've seen these two questions asked multiple times and have both haunted me from time to time, so I thought I would provide some answers, although the second is rather rudimentary.

1. Stripping the path off of a file
How often have you needed only the filename, not the path that precedes it? Fortunately most Linux distros make it pretty easy to strip off with the basename command. E.g.,

user@host:~$ basename /etc/apache2/httpd.conf
httpd.conf

Note that if the path contains spaces you will need to enclose it in quotes or escape it:

#Escaping
user@host:~$ basename /home/madjon/youth\ room\ shots/local\ youth\ demographics.xls
local youth demographics.xls

#Quoting
user@host:~$ basename "/home/madjon/youth room shots/local youth demographics.xls"
local youth demographics.xls

2. Stripping the file extension
This takes some bash string manipulation which you can find all about at tldp. If we take httpd.conf again:

# First, assign the filename to a variable:
user@host:~$ f=/etc/apache2/httpd.conf
user@host:~$ echo $f
/etc/apache2/httpd.conf

#Next, strip out any string, starting from the end of $f that matches ".*"
user@host:~$ echo ${f%.*}
/etc/apache2/httpd

Note that the variable substitution (the curly brackets) doesn't have the $ inside it. E.g., the general syntax is:

VAR=whatever
echo ${VAR%.*}

If we want to put them together:

user@host:~$ f=/etc/apache2/httpd.conf
user@host:~$ f=`basename $f`
user@host:~$ echo $f
httpd.conf
user@host:~$ echo ${f%.*}
httpd

I'm sure that this could be accomplished easier with some regex and awk or sed, but all three of those are confusing to me; simple bash scripting makes much more sense to me. I hope this helps whomever.

The Digital Recording of My Life

2008-04-09T22:43:00.002-05:00

Holy cow, it's late! I meant to be in bed nearly 45 minutes ago, but I had this post...

I've been working on a writing project for some time now, it was completely lost when my hard drive on my laptop died. Fortunately, the sources that I pulled most of it from (all my own original writing) still are around.

But I had to go and find these files again which have been scattered across several hard drives email, and multiple folders. What really struck me was that between the emails, my writing -- both homework and journals -- and blog entries, I have a pretty detailed record of my life, at least from the last 4-5 years. I may or may not be able to recover data further back than that, but it gets sparser at that point anyway.

It just is amazing how much of our lives are becoming self-recording without our even thinking about it...

Watching Bethel

2008-04-07T08:12:00.002-05:00

I partially broke my system for completing time lapses, thus the break in them. At any rate, this is the most recent as of yesterday.

Also, I am hoping to actually start blog blogging again soon, at least at best as I can. I have at least one draft post on economics -- even if only one person reads it :-)

Reflective?

2008-03-21T13:16:00.002-05:00

In the past year I've managed a mere 25 posts here. On my old blog I had 300 odd posts over three years. I'm not sure what happened to my writing. On the blog for my dad I just updated, 212 posts there, most of them written by me, most in a three and a half week span. Maybe that is why I am currently blogged out.

Actually I don't think that anybody visits this blog anymore, so it will be a surprise for somebody when they do again.

It was really weird to update the blog for my dad again. It starts bring back emotions really quickly, at some point I need to go back and re-read it. As I noted in the post mentioned, it is almost the only remaining evidence that anything ever happened. My dad is up and running normally enough, I am the only one that is still catching up on work from last fall. I guess that blog -- both literally and symbolically -- represents what has probably been the most singularly important event in my life.

Watching Bethel

2008-03-10T11:36:00.001-05:00

Latest time lapse of the new BU Commons, rendered this morning.

Gmail/SSL

2008-03-09T19:26:00.002-05:00

FYI: This is only for the geeky, not for anyone that generally follows this blog (if anybody still does).

On a mailing list that I subscribe to there was some talk as to whether Gmail will keep all traffic encrypted or not. Considering that I use Gmail, this was of some importance to me. So I used a packet sniffer (Wireshark) to monitor Gmail for a few hours.

After going through the Wireshark log (which took a bit!) the only non-SSL/TLS traffic from Gmail I could find looked like this:

ET /safebrowsing/update?client

=navclient-auto-ffox&appver=2.0.0.11&version=goog-white-domain:1:30,goog-white-url:1:371,goog-black-url:1:19069,goog-black-enchash:1:46040
HTTP/1.1
Host: sb.google.com
User-Agent: Mozilla/5.0 (X11; U; Linux i686; en-US; rv:1.8.1.11)
Gecko/20071204 Ubuntu/7.10 (gutsy) Firefox/2.0.0.11
Accept: text/xml,application/xml,application/xhtml+xml,text/html;q=0.9,text/plain;q=0.8,image/png,*/*;q=0.5
Accept-Language: en-us,en;q=0.5
Accept-Encoding: gzip,deflate
Accept-Charset: ISO-8859-1,utf-8;q=0.7,*;q=0.7
Keep-Alive: 300
Connection: keep-alive
Cookie: PREF=ID=2ebc725f67fb2226:TM=1185368577:LM=1204091083:FV=2:GM=1:S=wxIX6A2MoEz-E_jQ;
NID=7=idUEA3RlV2HdMJnwhlss9BlI_xHRanyp-YhurpGmW2VRTJRbQtFLMGUCaA4DM2EbxvWUdUmDM4QocyqrcNaAzeezJah8ZVR025-cv7ZI1pmmQFGztHdIOpBmOrAHmnnb;
rememberme=true; TZ=360; GMAIL_RTT=199;
SID=DQAAAHkAAADzxZbZSOLdabfqK8Sg1BqQiOfOHP_vmkzA86-1aZ6g6qK4ny6F2kgvPQk2w2L6NXGwI7d6eN7TC1ZT2otnoPuen1GljghnYC6w9F6o56AB1UB_LIaHO1CfI5VgfDr_JTUBy29vzneXPb6EbemlUPJ8tq0p_Kp6ysh90MNmjupnRw

HTTP/1.1 200 OK
Content-Type: text/html; charset=UTF-8
Cache-Control: public,max-age=600
Server: TrustRank Frontend
Content-Length: 40363
Date: Fri, 07 Mar 2008 19:48:54 GMT

[goog-black-enchash 1.46041 update]
-181A72096A3A5F5A6B5CE3D22D4990DC
+1ADDDA4E33D074B417D9032C0074E54B.Z1YySDViZ1cwW70PPccj6T76+VSLmilYHD4snvGWoJZDwmAzbDdxaDCGZQsJiCtQadFG7eZ2X6DeDa1bmIm2rUV+UkvCzR7eyfQ+raZEmhGeN+mJMsQnhgwogxfy
+32B06F940FF6E48A2FE609B51E416C58.ckkydGZxM2uxa3j+ksQIJoP044ACSApNlQwR1Hx3orZ+53tHaJmUOAxHjOP9ApeQzZjxW/2iepjX+SVeDnkMLSu6at81oCpjXI8cfBkYg1ntKazdBBraDzoh31YCI5mgLgj2iybtFg==
-409CA5195CFE1F8B615C0CF72343DE19

Except that the whole thing was ~41kb.

So, while not an exhaustive study by any means, it *does* look like Gmail will stick to SSL, or some type of encryption (I have no idea what "goog-blacl-enchash" means, but it certainly isn't plaintext).

If anyone wants to look through the packet dump let me know, it's about 4mb uncompressed after I filtered out traffic that I knew wasn't from Google (from a cron job I have going), I'd be glad to post it somewhere.

Watching Bethel

2008-01-29T06:15:00.000-06:00

As promised here is the most recent time lapse of the construction of the new BU commons. (Created today, before dawn)

Playing With Census Data

2008-01-21T06:38:00.001-06:00

The sheer amount of data that the U.S. Census Bureau (http://www.census.gov) puts out is staggering. They provide demographic data based both on the decennial data (the demographic survey mandated by the Constitution) which today collects far more information than they "have" to.* In addition to the decade survey** they provide information from their American Community Survey (a survey of approximately 78,000 households ever year), economic data, poverty data, racial data, geographic data, and more.

The value this has to sociologists and businesses can hardly be measured.

First, for sociologists it allows them so see basic population counts, then what classes, geographic areas, races, etc., group together, or how their income relates to the overall population. Combined with other data, this can be incredibly valuable.

For businesses knowing the race, median/mean income, class, etc., of your clients is equally valuable. Are most of your customers white, black, hispanic, or asian? Do they come from the upper classes, the middle classes, the lower classes, or the underclass? This allows for "target marketing," which means more than knowing where to advertise, it means knowing how to best serve your customers.

For the last year or so I have been working on mapping and then visualizing the data (using colors and elevation to represent different variables, income, population, race, whatever). It's only been in the last two weeks I've been able to create the maps (and those are still imperfect), and I have yet to really start on getting the Census data into a database that correlates with the mapping. But this is an ongoing project. It's mostly our of curiosity reasons.

For anyone that is interested in similar projects, I'll be posting the tech specs on how I've imported the data. For people that just want to know what I am up to I'll be posting examples -- when I am able to get that far.

For me, this is a very exciting project.

P.S. I plan to make everything available for free (think GPL for those of you who know what that is) as I am able to make progress.

*Article 1, Section 2 of the U.S. Constitution states:

"Representation and direct Taxes shall be apportioned among the several States which may be included within this Union, according to their respective Numbers ... . The actual Enumeration shall be made within three Years after the first Meeting of the Congress of the United States, and within every subsequent Term of ten Years, in such Manner as they shall by Law direct."

It is from the Census that Congressional districts are drawn (usually on a state level), and the number of electoral votes determined. However, today the Census Bureau collects far more data than the Constitution mandates (I do not know if Congressional law mandates it).

**Surveys generally take a random sample of people (if you see a survey in the news regarding polls, etc., the number of people surveyed should by about 1,500 for a good survey, 1,000 for an ok survey, less than that, ignore the survey). This is opposed to the Census, which tries to count every person in the United States every ten years.

Watching Bethel

2008-01-04T00:57:00.000-06:00

Politics

2008-01-03T23:44:00.000-06:00

So it's finally time to start caring about the 2008 presidential race. 2007 was about the entertainment, we are finally getting down to "the real thing," kinda.

My dad correctly predicted the Iowa caucus for the Democratics. From some conversations from a student Obama activists, Obama probably won because he had more people on the ground -- a lot more people. The polls as of yesterday still had put Hilary ahead, and the truth is, she probably still is. Her supporters just didn't go and vote like Obama's did.

The caucus results are more important right now than the polls because you can win more easily simply through voter turnout. Once you hit November, more people get out anyway, hence your ability to win by getting people out that normally would not goes down. At that point, polls matter quite a bit.

I have my own theory on predicting what party will win the Whitehouse, it's this: whichever party is more unified at its beginning. Basically, which party has the smaller spread in the caucuses. Unfortunately, I quickly found out this is hard to empirically verify.

I started by looking at numbers for the Iowa caucus, but can only find them back to 1972 for Democratics, and 1976 for Republicans. The other problem is that whenever an incumbent ran he ran unopposed (at least for all practical purposes). Hence, the theory only works on years when there wasn't an incumbent.

Since 1976 (when both numbers from Iowa were available) there has only been three such elections: 1976 (I don't count Ford as a real incumbent), 1988, and 2000. This is not enough data.

Of course there are other ways to find numbers, but its hard to find good numbers. I don't know where I can find poll results for a similar time period and if I could I'd probably have to pay for them, and even then I would have to find a way to compensate for different polling methods and confidence intervals (e.g., statistical problems).

So in the mean time I might have to find a new theory, at least if I want it to be empirical. I might still be right on this one, but it doesn't do a lot of good without the data to predict.

Dad Not Well

2007-12-06T13:15:00.001-06:00

If any of the two of you that read this blog don't actually know yet that my dad is quite sick, he is. I started another blog to track it, you can find it at http://ReachTJ.blogspot.com

All your prayers are appreciated!

Best Plan

2007-11-29T11:52:00.000-06:00

(Over texts)

Me: I am almost ready to die here... [after three and a half hours of student presentations]
Chip: Fake a seizure or stroke. Convulse your way out the door. Best plan.

Watching Bethel

2007-11-29T08:04:00.000-06:00

Time lapse of Bethel University Commons.

Here is the link to the original post, which explains how the time lapse is made etc.

Two Short Stories

2007-11-20T22:15:00.000-06:00

From my first class today:

Dr. Evil: "You have plans for Thanksgiving?"
Me: "I am going all the way up to Wisconsin to see relatives."
Dr. Evil: "Ah, you leave tomorrow?"
Me: "No, Wednesday."
Another Classmate: "Tomorrow is Wednesday."
Me: "Oh, yeah, tomorrow then."
Dr. Evil: Smiles, "Sounds like you are ready for Thanksgiving break."

Yeah, I guess.

Second story.
I noticed on my most recent credit card statement that the interest charge had gone up while the account balance had gone done so I called up VISA.

Disemobodied Voice: "How can I help you today?"
Me: "Talk to a representative." (This is not an option on the menu last I checked, but you can say it and it works.)
DV: "To further assist you let me get some information from you. What is the account number you are calling about?"
Me: "I don't know." (That credit card was cut up awhile ago."
DV: "Ok, sounds like I need to get someone on the line to help you out, hang out just a moment."

So I get a real person and ask them what my interest rate is. It is prime plus something.

Real Person: "Do you want that lowered?"
Me: Half-stunned, "Uhm, yeah."
RP: "Well, we can lower that [4%]."
Me: "Uhm, great!"

Note that I didn't even get to ask for a lower rate, she offered it. Weird. Of course, I took it. It wasn't completely unlike the last time I called asking about rates. I was trying to get the rate down from around 24% (starting rate for college students) and just asking got it cut back 10%. Nice. Real nice.

Watching Bethel

2007-11-13T12:50:00.000-06:00

This video was made in the last hour, e.g., perfectly up-to-date as of this posting.

If anybody can think of a song that would go well with this that would be awesome. It would be even better is someone wanted to write one. Because I can't legally just attach any song to this...

(How ironic would it be if the song was Matchbox 20's How Far We've Come? [Lyrics | Video])

Here is the link to the original post, which explains how the time lapse is made etc.

If anybody is interested, higher quality videos are available (Blogger degrades the video quality so that it will actually stream more or less seamlessly,) as well as videos that play slower/faster. It might seem like its going really fast now, but by February of 2009 that is not as likely to be the case.

Hey! People are Reading!

2007-11-06T11:48:00.000-06:00

Well, at least two, but that is two more than I realized. Thanks for visiting!

Thoughts on a Turning and Running,

2007-11-06T09:50:00.000-06:00

The two issues that currently dominate the the public debate is not so much over candidates but over the subprime credit problems (i.e., the housing market) and Iraq. Clearly, that latter is more widely discussed.

Conservatives, and even some moderates and liberals, consider troop withdrawals to be an abandonment of Iraq. Clearly, they are correct in this assessment. The other side tends to focus on the lack of progress with our troops there and the American losses in the meantime. Clearly, the are correct in their assessment.

Two months before the year's end, 2007 has already been declared the deadliest year for American troops in Ira q, the total deaths as of Tuesday morning is 3,857. This pales in comparison to most of the other wars America fought in the last century, Gulf I notwithstanding. The United States lost nearly ten times that in the Korean War. Still, this is a war of attrition

The UN estimated that there have been approximately 35,000 Iraqi deaths (civilian) in 2006 alone. The total number of Iraqi deaths since 2003 could easily double this number. Which brings us back to the conservatives' point, leaving now is most likely to increase this number further.

Except that this is a point largely taken for granted. I cannot easily find hard numbers, but I highly doubt that the death toll was anywhere near this high under Saddam, even with his occasional mass killings. Oh, and they also could play in the street, go to school, have reliable running water and electricity etc. More pointedly, 2002 was a better year for Iraqis than any of the last four.

This is a powerful point, the American troop presence in Iraq has done nothing to stabilize the country, if anything things are getting worse. As Philip Carter points out, falling death tolls in certain Baghdad neighborhoods may only be evidence that one side successfully kicked out the other side, or simply killed them.

In light of all of this, it is clear that we need a better idea of what the consequences of a Turn and Run strategy would be. Unfortunately, there is no real way to predict what will happen. I believe the most likely scenario is that Iraq falls into a full scale civil war until the Shiities or Sunnis gain control (sorry Kurds, you don't stand a chance). This is a doom and gloom scenario but also a likely one. Ironically, it may be that in long run it actually leads to fewer Iraqi deaths rather than more.

Still before we close the case on this we might ask, is there a way to stabilize Iraq without cutting and running? I believe there is, but nobody wants to do it or even say the word. There is no question that our Army and Marines and weakening. This means that even maintaining our current troop level will be difficult (or impossible) without, yes, that word, the draft.

Nobody likes this idea. No politician wants to be behind it, even if he or she were, their party would not want them to be behind it. No college student or recent high school graduate wants it, and more than anything, the Army doesn't want it. For some strange reason when you force people to fight in a war they don't want to exist they don't fight as well as those who are voluntarily there (where voluntarily means that joined on their own, it doesn't speak to forced redeployments).

Currently we have about 170,000 troops in Iraq, give or take a few. You have to be, well, stupid to believe that this is getting the job done. Wars are generally decided by brute force more than tactics (there are exceptions, Vietnam, the Revolutionary War), but if you are outgunned you are going to have problems for sure.

I've been saying for awhile (I can't find blog postings on it, but friends would confirm I've been saying this since the beginning or near beginning of the invasion) that at least 250,000 troops are needed in Iraq. RAND (a large thinktank focusing on the US armed forces) found that twice that number would be needed in 2003, before things got really bad.

We do not have that luxury at present, we would only get it with a draft, or if we were willingly to double, maybe triple, maybe quadruple armed services salaries. Either way, it still would take a minimum of 18 months to train and equip these troops (if we seriously try to boost troop levels that high it would likely take longer, realistically, to do it well, five years).

We then end up with three options, increase troop levels by over 200%, maintain the poorly performing status quo, or turn and run.

There are many more facets to these arguments that I have time to address here (or at least energy to address), but what comes through is this: A Turn and Run strategy may be better for Iraq overall. No, its not fair that we came in and broke it, but we don't have the ability to fix it, and leaving the pieces on the ground may end up being the best option.

Watching Bethel

2007-11-01T12:04:00.000-05:00

This video is an hourly time lapse of the construction of the new University Commons at Bethel, updated this morning. I'll probably try to keep it updated on a regular basis, at least after obtaining permission from Bethel, the images are from their webcam.

This was made on my end using completely open source software (OSS) with the following steps:

1. I run a Linux based system

2. I use a program called "anachron" to schedule a program to run once an hour, every day

3. The program (wget) downloads the picture from Bethel's webcam and names it with the time stamp (YearMonthDayHourMinute) in such a way that it keeps the pictures in chronological order.

4. Next a program called ImageMagick processes each photo and spits out the number of unique colors in the photo. If the number of unique colors is less than 2,000 it means that the photo is black ( e.g., taken at night) and is discounted*

5. If the number of colors is greater than 2,000 it converts the photo from a GIF format to a JPEG format for the next step.

(5.b. A separate program renames the photos that are used sequentially so ffmpeg can process them)

6. A program called ffmpeg takes all the photos in JPEG format and converts them into a movie, in this case two movies.

7. I show people the movies I made and look cool :-)

School

2007-09-11T11:26:00.000-05:00

Has most definitely started. Tuesdays I have classes spaced out from 8:55am - 10:00pm. Thursday the lower bound ends at 3:40pm.

All my classes are 400 level classes, e.g., the hardest classes I can be taking. They included Advanced Economic Theory, Capital Markets, Economics Senior Seminar, and Philosophy Senior Seminar. So far on books I have spent:

Advanced Economic Theory: $53.89
Capital Markets: $113.97 (books and 1 year subscription to the wall street journal)
Economics Senior Seminar: $75.52 (all books)
Philosophy Senior Seminar: $16.84 (1 of 5 books)
Total: $260.22

And I'll be spending at least another $50 in books. Oh, and these are all from the lowest listed price on Amazon.com, including used books.

In addition to school I am working at Roseville Xpress Lube about 20 hours a week, and spending around 10 hours at church a week. Life is getting a bit hectic.

Service Dog

2007-08-07T17:26:00.001-05:00

At the airport, pretty awesome, was eating a burger from Wendy's before.

An Ass out of U

2007-08-07T08:46:00.000-05:00

No, I'm not going all junior-high girl on you. What happens when you assume? You make an ass out of u. One of my aunt's favorite jokes of all time.

I am, of course, down in Ohio. Currently, I am sitting at Katie's grandmother's kitchen table where I have been for about the last half hour. I came down to get some coffee, coffee cake, and to check-in for tonight's flight. That is where the fun began.

I was able to Katie checked in without any problems whatsoever, even changing her seat. Then I went to check myself in. NWA.com told me that my flight had already left. Wheels started rolling around in my head.

I had put myself down as available for today, Tuesday, on my work schedule because I thought I was going to be back home by noon, but Katie's ticket (and mine?) very clearly showed that the return flight was for the evening.

I hit the 'change flight' button on NWA.com, which would also show me what flights I was confirmed for while simultaneously going back to check the email from NWA that my dad had fowarded to me.

Sure enough, Katie and I were on different flights and mine had left just a few minutes ago.

Well, NWA.com had a list of other flights leaving from Columbus and going to MSP today so I paid $25 to change flights. Really, that quite impressed me, I was able to change flights after I had missed mine (where missed means, "slept through because I didn't know I was on it,") and get on another flight of my choosing. Oh, and the ticket was free thanks to miles in the first place.

So I went from panic mode to, "k, it's coo'" in about five minutes.

Say "yay!" for the internet!

What Are You Doing?

2007-08-06T19:01:00.000-05:00

A perfect caption for the picture, especially as that is exactly what she was asking.

I figured out how to turn the shutter sound off of the camera on my phone.

I win!

:-)

David

2007-08-06T19:00:00.000-05:00

This is Katie's youngest cousin. The kid is a riot...

'nother mobile snap

2007-08-06T18:59:00.000-05:00

This is one my favorite pictures ever, snapped it eight days ago courtesy of my phone.