It's Dawn...

That would be a perfect title for some sort of metaphor. Unfortunately it's not. I've been up for the last couple of hours (got about two hours of sleep before waking up and not sleeping anymore) working on my final project for Econometrics. Running Chow tests on an index of major furniture companies {1} and the Federal Funds rate. The time periods for the Chow tests were 1995-1999:2000-2008, and 1995-2000:2001-2008. The first test showed a stronger difference but was much less statistically significant.

In simple terms I am testing to see if the Federal Funds rate (the rate you always see reported) had different effects on my index for those time periods. In both cases it is obvious that after 2000/2001 the Federal Funds rate had a greater effect on my index than in the former time period (before 2000/2001). Unfortunately, the standard error is pretty high for the model I prefer.

To get to the point I've just been formatting the data for my stats program, running the tests, etc., then all of a sudden notice that my room has gotten much lighter. I look out the window and sure enough it's dawn.

I really don't know if this is a good sign or not...